1. Why Napoleon Came So Close
Napoleon's return from Elba in the spring of 1815 exploited genuine fractures among the victorious powers and widespread French war-weariness with the restored Bourbon regime. His strategic instinct in the opening days of the Hundred Days campaign was sound: strike before the Allied armies could unite, defeat them separately, and negotiate from strength. He came within hours of achieving exactly that at Ligny, where Prussian forces took a serious beating. The margin between a French victory at Waterloo and the outcome that actually occurred was narrow enough that historians continue to argue about whether different timing, a single different decision, or better weather on the preceding night might have changed everything.
Why it matters: Understanding how close the result was prevents the lazy assumption that Napoleon's defeat was inevitable, and forces a clearer look at the actual causes rather than the mythology of inevitable decline.