1. Origins, Spread, and the Scale of Death
The plague most likely originated in Central or East Asia before travelling along trade routes toward the Black Sea, entering Europe through ports in Sicily and the Italian peninsula. From there it moved with remarkable speed northward and westward, reaching England, Scandinavia, and much of Eastern Europe within a few years. The death toll is genuinely uncertain and debated among historians: estimates have ranged widely, but a broad scholarly consensus places European mortality somewhere between roughly a third and half the population, with local figures sometimes higher. This scale of loss within such a compressed period had no precedent in recorded European history.
Why it matters: Understanding the sheer speed and geographic reach of the plague is essential to grasping why institutions collapsed so quickly: no system, political or medical or spiritual, had time to adapt before it was overwhelmed.